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The polls are open for general elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data suggesting that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, though analysts believe PVV stands little chance of being part of the future coalition.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and established a four-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is projected to win between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's support has declined since the previous election, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, and who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June over disagreements concerning his controversial anti-refugee plans.

Key Contenders and Projections

At the end of a campaign dominated by topics such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing shortage, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, expected to win between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist Democrats 66, predicted to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is anticipated to more than double its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the PVV, VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with some experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Political Division

Under the proportional Dutch system, securing just 0.67% of the national vote yields a party one MP. Among the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including senior-focused parties, for youth, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation means that no single party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – often including four parties in recent governments – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from government. But, opponents and experts say that first place does not assure government participation and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations may require several months, political observers indicate that after the most radical administration in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based alliance led by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, opened at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected shortly after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before assuming power.