How Donald Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Faces Challenges Regarding Vladimir Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict
Accounts of an upcoming US-Russia leadership summit have been overstated, it seems.
Just days after Donald Trump said he planned to confer with Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.
A initial meeting by the two nations' leading diplomats has been cancelled, as well.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump told reporters at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I'll see what transpires."
- Trump states he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after plan for negotiations with Putin postponed
- Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky leaves Washington without results
The on-again, off-again meeting is just the latest development in the president's attempts to broker an end to war in Ukraine – a topic of increased attention for the US president after he arranged a ceasefire and hostage release agreement in the Palestinian territory.
During a speech in Egypt recently to commemorate that truce deal, the president turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.
"We have to get Russia done," he declared.
However, the circumstances that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for nearing several years.
Reduced Influence
Per Witkoff, the crucial element to unlocking a deal was the Israeli government's decision to attack representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a action that infuriated America's Arab allies but gave Trump bargaining power to compel Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
The US president benefited from a history of siding with Israel since his initial presidency, encompassing his choice to relocate the American embassy to Jerusalem, to change US policy on the legality of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, more recently, his support for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.
The US president, in fact, is more popular among Israelis than Netanyahu – a position that provided him with unique influence over the Israeli leader.
Add in the president's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to secure an agreement.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, Trump has much less influence. Over the past nine months, he has swung between attempts to strong-arm the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.
The US leader has warned to impose new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could disrupt the world's financial stability and further escalate the war.
Meanwhile, the president has criticized openly Zelensky, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and pausing weapon deliveries to the nation - then to retreat in the wake of concerned European allies who caution a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the whole area.
The president loves to tout his skill to meet and negotiate agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to move the hostilities any closer to a peaceful end.
The Russian president may actually be exploiting the US leader's wish for a deal – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a method of manipulating him.
During the summer, Putin consented to a high-level meeting in the US state at the time when it appeared likely that the president would approve on congressional sanctions package supported by Senate Republicans. That legislation was afterwards delayed.
Last week, as reports spread that the White House was seriously contemplating sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the president of Russia phoned Trump who then promoted the possible summit in Hungary.
The next day, Trump welcomed Ukraine's leader at the White House, but departed empty-handed after a allegedly strained discussion.
The US leader insisted that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.
"As you are aware, I've been played all my life by the best of them, and I came out successfully," he said.
However the Ukrainian leader later commented on the timeline of developments.
"As soon as the issue of long-range mobility became a little further away for us – for Ukraine – the Russian side almost automatically became less interested in diplomacy," he said.
So, in a matter of days, the president has bounced from considering the idea of providing weapons to Ukraine to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and privately urging Zelensky to cede all of Donbas – even land Russia has been unable to conquer.
He has finally decided on advocating a truce along current battle lines – something the Russian government has rejected.
During his election campaign previously, Trump promised that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has since abandoned that commitment, saying that concluding the hostilities is turning out harder than he expected.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his power – and the challenge of finding a peace plan when neither side wants, or can afford to, cease hostilities.